Simply said: the people in the Balkans are, on average, getting older and less educated, and their total number is decreasing.
Recently students in North Macedonia protested against their living standards in the country: the last drop was the government announcing that it would cut the subsidized meal program. Students felt like the conditions were making them leave the country. And they are not the only ones.
In 2021, the long-awaited census of North Macedonia was finally completed, though not without its controversies. Despite all the squabbling over methodology and which ethnic group got how many percentage points more or less than the other, one crucial statistic went rather undiscussed: the total population went down by over 9% instead of the predicted minor growth. North Macedonia is also far from the only country dealing with this issue: population decline or at least stagnation is the norm rather than the exception in the Balkans.
This population decline stems from both a low birthrate and relatively high emigration. Nor are Balkan countries popular destinations for migration from other places, which could compensate for low birthrates as it does in certain Western European countries.
Even more worrisome is that the people that leave tend to be young and often are well-educated, leaving behind an increasingly aging and declining population. According to research by Youth Alliance NGO in North Macedonia, a staggering 90% of young people want to move abroad. The main factor that encourages the emigration of young people is corruption; other factors are youth unemployment, which stands at 28.3%, and youth poverty, at 27.3%. Recently also US ambassador to North Macedonia recognized that corruption is one of the reasons that young and talented people leave the country.
Why do people leave?
The simple reason is that it is (or seems) easier to build a life abroad than at home. Balkan countries have suffered from a lack of or stagnation of economic growth. Wages are low, in many sectors, unemployment remains high, prices of living are on the rise, and working conditions are often substandard. Add to that the relative ease of moving to richer EU countries, especially for highly skilled migrants, and it is easy to see why one would leave their home and try building a life abroad.
But it is not only economics. Balkan countries suffer from endemic corruption & the associated political appointments, lack of merit system, and a toxic political climate. Corruption has undermined and hollowed out Balkan societies; public administrations are corrupt and incompetent. Kafkaesque bureaucracy and dismal service are the norms rather than the exception. Infrastructure is built substandard if it is even built at all, cities are polluted, and (job) safety regulations are not followed.
Education is underfunded, and healthcare and public transport are rarely up to snuff. Meanwhile, politics focuses on identity disputes and pointing fingers while being a significant source of corruption. In such an environment, it is no surprise that many look at the opportunities that migration offers and make the choice to leave their homeland behind.
Why does it matter that people leave?
Three things are going on: the population of many Balkan states is shrinking, the population is graying, and there is a brain drain. Simply said: the people in the Balkans are, on average, getting older and less educated, and their total number is decreasing.
Population decrease can be challenging for economies as markets and labor pools shrink: especially local economies can be hit hard with villages and towns emptying out, making it impossible to keep local businesses afloat. Graying countries deal with pension schemes that become harder to keep afloat, with a smaller population paying taxes and increased pressure on the healthcare system.
However, most of all worrying is the effect of brain drain on an economy and a society. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Balkans is hindered because there is often a lack of talented workers: investment that is desperately needed to keep flailing Balkan economies afloat. Besides the economy, many of the issues experienced in the Balkans require skilled and ambitious people. There is a genuine need for (political) leadership, and competent people are needed to state institutions so services can be properly provided. Last but not least, intelligent and educated people desperately need to educate and train the new generation.
Recently students in North Macedonia protested against their living standards in the country: the last drop was the government announcing that it would cut the subsidized meal program. Students felt like the conditions were making them leave the country. And they are not the only ones.
In 2021, the long-awaited census of North Macedonia was finally completed, though not without its controversies. Despite all the squabbling over methodology and which ethnic group got how many percentage points more or less than the other, one crucial statistic went rather undiscussed: the total population went down by over 9% instead of the predicted minor growth. North Macedonia is also far from the only country dealing with this issue: population decline or at least stagnation is the norm rather than the exception in the Balkans.
This population decline stems from both a low birthrate and relatively high emigration. Nor are Balkan countries popular destinations for migration from other places, which could compensate for low birthrates as it does in certain Western European countries.
Even more worrisome is that the people that leave tend to be young and often are well-educated, leaving behind an increasingly aging and declining population. According to research by Youth Alliance NGO in North Macedonia, a staggering 90% of young people want to move abroad. The main factor that encourages the emigration of young people is corruption; other factors are youth unemployment, which stands at 28.3%, and youth poverty, at 27.3%. Recently also US ambassador to North Macedonia recognized that corruption is one of the reasons that young and talented people leave the country.
Why do people leave?
The simple reason is that it is (or seems) easier to build a life abroad than at home. Balkan countries have suffered from a lack of or stagnation of economic growth. Wages are low, in many sectors, unemployment remains high, prices of living are on the rise, and working conditions are often substandard. Add to that the relative ease of moving to richer EU countries, especially for highly skilled migrants, and it is easy to see why one would leave their home and try building a life abroad.
But it is not only economics. Balkan countries suffer from endemic corruption & the associated political appointments, lack of merit system, and a toxic political climate. Corruption has undermined and hollowed out Balkan societies; public administrations are corrupt and incompetent. Kafkaesque bureaucracy and dismal service are the norms rather than the exception. Infrastructure is built substandard if it is even built at all, cities are polluted, and (job) safety regulations are not followed.
Education is underfunded, and healthcare and public transport are rarely up to snuff. Meanwhile, politics focuses on identity disputes and pointing fingers while being a significant source of corruption. In such an environment, it is no surprise that many look at the opportunities that migration offers and make the choice to leave their homeland behind.
Why does it matter that people leave?
Three things are going on: the population of many Balkan states is shrinking, the population is graying, and there is a brain drain. Simply said: the people in the Balkans are, on average, getting older and less educated, and their total number is decreasing.
Population decrease can be challenging for economies as markets and labor pools shrink: especially local economies can be hit hard with villages and towns emptying out, making it impossible to keep local businesses afloat. Graying countries deal with pension schemes that become harder to keep afloat, with a smaller population paying taxes and increased pressure on the healthcare system.
However, most of all worrying is the effect of brain drain on an economy and a society. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Balkans is hindered because there is often a lack of talented workers: investment that is desperately needed to keep flailing Balkan economies afloat. Besides the economy, many of the issues experienced in the Balkans require skilled and ambitious people. There is a genuine need for (political) leadership, and competent people are needed to state institutions so services can be properly provided. Last but not least, intelligent and educated people desperately need to educate and train the new generation.
But it is often precisely these people that have the possibility to leave the region and start a life elsewhere. It is these people that are ground down by the political and bureaucratic systems.
Source: euractiv.com
As such, brain drain and population decrease is becoming a feedback loop: talented, educated, ambitious people are desperately needed to address the most challenging problems of Balkan societies, but these people are chased away by the local systems or lured away by personal economic or academic development.
The role of the EU
EU accession is commonly seen as a sort of panacea for many of these problems. The accession process is supposed to be understood as transformative for a country: stabilizing and strengthening its economy & establishing the rule of law, amongst other things. However, in reality, EU accession has not fixed many of these problems: its southern members remain struggling economically whilst some of the newest additions to the Union remain weakened by endemic corruption.
Equally worrying is that EU membership has not stymied the brain drain and, in fact, may have worsened it with the freedom of movement: see, for instance, Slovakia or Greece & Croatia. The latter now offers Croats living abroad €26.000 if they come back to Croatia to start a business. Yes, EU membership will give access to the common market and various funds for development (Western Balkan countries already receive billions in funding from the EU), strengthening the economic outlook.
Still, in reality, it is clear that 1) poorer members will not be able to compete in living standards 2) EU membership will not inherently solve many rather endemic issues in the Western Balkan countries. Thus, it is likely and to be expected that people will continue to leave the region even if EU accession is achieved.
Going forward
The role of remittances is interesting – they are money or goods that are sent back by people working abroad: typically to their household or family. It is money earned abroad but spent in the local economy. Remittances can make up a large part of the economy in places like Kyrgyzstan (migrants primarily working in Russia) but are also not insignificant in the Balkans. Remittances can allow family members or friends the freedom and resources to develop a business or education back home, meaning that remittances could be a resource for countries with a large diaspora.
Similarly, people from the diaspora simply returning home with their skills and with their monetary resources would be a huge boon to the home country. Essentially, this is what Croatia’s program tries to stimulate.
People in the diaspora are also perfectly situated to understand and navigate Balkan markets, and on a world level, the region is still relatively well-educated, but the costs of living remain relatively low compared to other well-educated countries. There are opportunities for economic growth, at least.
However, corruption will have to be fought locally. There is no easy way. Anti-corruption measures can hardly be imposed from abroad. It requires local people with vision and will to take on corruption, which essentially means fighting against your own potential income and fighting against the wallet of your fellow politicians. Real institutional change is needed in the Balkans before things get better.
EU accession will only help if it is done properly: if laws are really changed and followed. If institutions really check each other instead of only going after political enemies (or nobody at all).
In short: you need dedicated, willful leadership and capable public servants to fill state institutions. Now the Balkans need to ensure those future leaders do not disappear abroad.
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