The construction of the Southern Gas Interconnection and the quite determined announcement that American companies could take over some key infrastructure projects, such as sections of the 5C highway, are the most profound geopolitical shift in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the last ten years.
At the heart of this process is the question of how much the Russian influence in Bosnia and Herzegovina will be reduced when the country obtains an alternative source of gas and when the American capital becomes present in the strategic infrastructure.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is almost completely dependent on Russian gas, which enters the country via the Turkish Stream and Serbia. For years, this dependence has been a key instrument of Russian influence in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially in political structures that maintain close relations with Moscow. According to data from the South East European Energy Institute, Bosnia and Herzegovina imported 225.48 million cubic meters of gas in 2023, and 100% from Russia.
As energy expert Almir Bečarević warns, Bosnia and Herzegovina is in an extremely vulnerable position because it has “only one connection, no storage and no possibility of urgent shifting to alternative sources”. He emphasizes that the gas “is definitely there, but at what price”, and that any restriction on purchases via the TurkStream would put Bosnia and Herzegovina in the “last in line” position, which would lead to new price increases.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe
According to international analysis done by Pipeline Technology Journal, Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of the few European countries that did not diversify its sources after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which “allowed Russia to maintain its gas monopoly in Bosnia and Herzegovina.”
That is why international energy experts have been warning for years that Bosnia and Herzegovina is one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe when it comes to Moscow’s energy pressure. Political scientist Hamza Karčić emphasizes that the Southern Interconnection has “reduced the energy dependence on Russia and the vulnerability of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina to political pressures from Republic of Srpska” and that the project represents “an American strategic response to Russian influence in the region.”
The US Embassy in Sarajevo has openly stated that the Southern Interconnection is the only realistic project that can pull Bosnia and Herzegovina out of the complete dependence on Russian gas. The official statement from the Embassy says that the Southern Interconnection is “the only currently feasible project that would enable Bosnia and Herzegovina to end its total dependence on a single source – Russia” and that it would provide for “thousands of new jobs and long-term energy security.”
American diplomat John Ginkel also warned that Bosnia and Herzegovina is entering a critical period.
“Bosnia and Herzegovina is 100 percent dependent on Russian gas, and that supply is not reliable. The EU is banning Russian gas and Bulgaria will stop the pass-through by 2028. Bosnia and Herzegovina will need a new source of gas, and the Southern Interconnection is the only viable solution.”
Source: envato
These messages clearly show that Washington views the project from a strategic lens, and not just from the economic perspective. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stressed that investment in the Southern Interconnection are “the key to long-term energy security and ending of the dependence on Russian gas”, which is one of the most direct statements given by a senior American official about Bosnia and Herzegovina in the context of Russian influence.
At the P-TEC conference in Athens, US ministers Doug Burgum and Chris Wright warned that “every day of delay to the Southern Interconnection increases the risk to the energy security of Bosnia and Herzegovina” and that “it is time to reach a compromise and get the project underway without further blockages.”
A geopolitical blow to Russian influence
The Southern Interconnection is a geopolitical blow to Russian influence for several reasons. First, Bosnia and Herzegovina would have access to the LNG terminal on the island of Krk, which means that the gas no longer has to be Russian – it can be American, Qatari, Algerian or Norwegian. Second, American companies take on a key role in the development and management of the project, which means a long-term American presence in the energy sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina and reduction of the room for Russian and Serbian energy interests. Third, reducing energy dependence automatically reduces the political influence of Moscow, which has used gas as an instrument of pressure for years, especially through the structures in the Republic of Srpska.
Pipeline Technology Journal reminds that the Southern Interconnection concept was created even after the interruption of the Russian supply in 2009, when 100,000 households in Bosnia and Herzegovina were left without heating for two weeks – which showed how vulnerable Bosnia and Herzegovina is to Russian energy decisions.
Although less mentioned in public, the potential engagement of American companies in the construction of the 5C highway in Bosnia and Herzegovina has a geopolitical significance similar to the gas pipeline. Infrastructure is a long-term instrument of influence – whoever builds that infrastructure is here to stay. American companies like Bechtel are already deeply involved in infrastructure projects in the region, from Croatia to N. Macedonia. Their entry into Bosnia and Herzegovina would mean a long-term US economic presence, strengthening political ties and reducing the space for Chinese and Russian investments.
Russia has previously warned that it will “react negatively” to attempts to reduce its energy influence in the region. While no direct measures are expected, Moscow could increase political support for Bosnia and Herzegovina actors opposed to the Southern Interconnection, use media and propaganda channels to destabilize the project, or offer more favorable gas prices in order to retain the market. However, in the long run, the loss of the energy monopoly is a blow from which it is difficult to recover.
The largest resistance to the project comes from political structures with close ties to Moscow. Pipeline Technology Journal states that “Bosnian Croats have blocked the project for years, seeking a new company based in Mostar,” which, according to the same source, “was criticized by the US and EU for directly threatening energy security of Bosnia and Herzegovina and maintaining the Russian monopoly.”
The disappearance of the Russian monopoly
The US administration, according to diplomatic sources, exerted strong pressure for the law to be passed, which happened in late 2024 and early 2025. This shows that Washington no longer wants strategic projects to depend on local political blockages and that it is ready to intervene directly on issues it considers crucial for the stability of the region.
In the short term, Russian influence in Bosnia and Herzegovina will not disappear. Moscow still has strong political ties in the Bosnian entity of Republika Srpska, media influence and economic interests in the region. However, in the medium and long term, the construction of the Southern Interconnection and the entry of American companies into infrastructure projects will dramatically reduce Russian influence.
When gas starts flowing through Croatia, the Russian energy monopoly disappears, and with it a key instrument of political pressure. If American companies take over the highway, Bosnia and Herzegovina would find itself in a situation where the US builds key energy and transport infrastructure, while the EU finances most of the other strategic projects. In such an environment, Russian influence would be reduced to symbolic messages and political allies, without real instruments of pressure.
This process will not be instantaneous, but it will be inevitable. Energy diversification and the American infrastructure presence represent a tectonic shift in the geopolitical balance in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Russia will have a hard time adjusting to a new reality in which it no longer holds key levers of power.
