Diplomatic Pressure, Security Narratives and FIMI Vulnerability: The 2018 Macedonian Referendum and Its Aftermath

Maja Slaveva

Abstract

This paper analyzes the international strategic communication evolution and its long-term impact onto the domestic democracy and its legitimacy in North Mac­edonia, starting from the 2018 Macedonian referendum to 2025. By defining the term “diplomatic pressure,” the study analyzes how security- driven narratives—de­ployed influenced politics and cognitive security through both traditional diplomatic channels and early-stage digital influence operations. The research is anchored in the author’s original 2020 empirical study5 of 464 respondents, which documented a signif­icant “trust deficit”. The findings highlight the perception of 53.2% of the citizens of the country over these multifaceted pressures as pushy rather than persuasive. The paper argues that the sophisticated digital pressure witnessed during the 2018 referendum, characterized by aggressive social media campaigns and algorithmic targeting, served as a precursor to the sophisticated Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) observed today. The author finds a clear correlation between the perceived inter­ference of 2018 and the present “resilience deficit” in Macedonian institutions by com­bining these longitudinal insights with the 2025 IKS study on “Institutional Response to FIMI6.” The findings suggest that the early normalization of digital and diplomatic pressure eroded societal cognitive security, leaving a legacy of polarization. The study concludes that the institutional battle to counter hybrid threats in 2025 is deeply rooted in the damaged public trust established during the referendum period, necessitating a strategic shift from top-down narratives to systemic resilience-building.

Keywords: public diplomacy, strategic communication, cognitive security, FIMI, institutional resilience